Lyzr Research · October 2026 · A 35 minute read
2026 is the year
of agent management.
The control plane is
the missing layer.
A control plane is the one place that can see every agent, whoever built it, and switch any of them off. IBM finds that only 12% of organizations have one. Most treat the gap as a security problem, and we think that reading produces the wrong answer.
To whoever is accountable for the agents
Three things happened at once this year. Almost nobody connected them.
Agents got cheap to build.
Every platform you already own now ships a way to make one, and most need no engineer.
The count went vertical.
IBM expects most large enterprises to run more than sixteen hundred agents by the end of this year.
The management layer never arrived.
Eighteen percent of organizations hold a complete inventory. Twelve percent have any central platform. Thirty-five percent say they could not shut one down today.
This is the one that matters
The consensus reading is that this is a security problem. We think that reading is wrong, and the error is expensive. A security framing buys a tool and a review board. Neither produces a list, an owner or a number, and those three absences are the entire problem. This report makes the case and says what would prove us wrong.
Lyzr Research, October 2026
The short version.
- 2025 was the year of agentsEvery platform shipped one. Many never went near procurement. IBM expects most large enterprises to run more than sixteen hundred of them by the end of this year.
- 2026 is the year somebody has to manage themCount them, own them, cost them, retire them. Those are operations verbs, and that decides who pays for it.
- Three things broke at onceNobody holds the list. Nobody owns the individual agent. Nobody can say what any of it returned. Each is survivable alone. They did not arrive alone.
- Every vendor is claiming the layerForrester polled 47 vendors in February. Seventy-nine percent now treat agent control planes as a distinct category, and forty percent report active buying motions. A category is forming in real time.
- There are two versions of 2029In one, agent count is a boring reported metric. In the other, enterprises are shutting down agents they cannot explain, which Gartner expects 40% of them to be doing by 2027. The fork is this year, and picking a side is cheap.
What this covers
Five parts. One argument.
2023 to 2026
What changed
How the count went vertical in eighteen months, where the agents came from, and the three things that broke together.
The consensus
What everyone got wrong
Why a security framing produces the wrong program, why none of the obvious tools fix it, and the island problem underneath all of it.
The fork
The two 2029s
The good case, the bad one, what regulators and insurers are about to ask, and six things we expect to be held to.
Start Monday
What we would do
Five questions, the eight weeks, what to buy, what to refuse, and what to put in front of a board.
One candidate
Lyzr’s Opencontroller
How Lyzr’s control plane answers the five questions, and where it fits and where it does not.
What changed.
The count went vertical in eighteen months. Three things broke at the same time.
2023 pilots. 2024 copilots. 2025 agents. 2026 is the bill for all three.
Lyzr Research. The labels are ours. The sequence is not controversial.
IBM Think, May 2026
Most large enterprises will finish this year running more than sixteen hundred agents.
Agents that IBM expects most large enterprises to be running by the end of 2026
Sit with that number. Almost nobody approved sixteen hundred of anything. They arrived a few at a time, from six directions, each one individually reasonable and none of them wrong.
Almost nobody approved sixteen hundred of anything
IBM enterprise survey presented at Think 2026, as reported. Vendor-published. Verify independently before quoting.
The mechanism
Building an agent got dramatically cheaper, and the approval step disappeared.
Both halves matter and the second one matters more. A low-code platform turns an agent into an afternoon. That is the price collapse. But the thing that actually changed the count is that building one stopped requiring anyone’s permission. An engineer needs a repository. A business user needs a login they already have. Price collapses are visible in a budget. Permission collapses are not visible anywhere, which is why the count surprised everybody.
Four findings. Three surveys. One answer.
Hold a complete agent inventory
IBM, 2026 · Fewer than one in five
18%
Have any central platform for sprawl
IBM, 2026 · Roughly one in eight
12%
Have a mature agent governance model
Deloitte, 2026 · One in five
21%
Could stop a rogue agent today
Writer, 2026 · Leaving 35% who say they could not
65%
Different definitions. Several are vendor-run. The direction does not move.
IBM Think 2026; Deloitte State of AI 2026; Writer, 2026. Cited as published.
The structure of the problem
Three things broke at the same time. Each is survivable alone.
- Nobody holds the list. Discovery by questionnaire finds the agents people remember to declare, which is rarely the set that causes the incident.
- Nobody owns the individual agent. The builder moved on. The business unit assumes technology owns it. Technology assumes the business unit does.
- Nobody can say what any of it returned. Spend arrives as one invoice with no breakdown. There is no numerator and there is no denominator.
- Any one of these is an ordinary operational gap. All three at once, at four figures of scale, is a different category of problem and it does not respond to ordinary fixes.
The gap, drawn
Adoption and governance are both rising. They are not rising at the same rate.
One of these lines is a technology adoption curve, which is a thing organizations are good at. The other is an operational capability curve, which is a thing organizations are good at only when somebody is made responsible for it.
The gap between those two lines is the entire subject of this report
Illustrative. The shapes follow the direction of the IBM and Gartner figures. They are not measured values.
The word stopped meaning what it meant in 2023, and the controls did not update.
| 2023 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| What it did | Answered a question | Plans steps, calls tools, writes to systems |
| Human involvement | Reviewed every output | Reviews a sample, if that |
| What it touched | A chat window | Systems of record, customer data, the outside world |
| Who built it | A data science team | Anyone with a platform login |
| How many | Countable on request | Four figures, uncountable without software |
| Governed as | An experiment | Still, mostly, an experiment |
Instrument 01 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
The principal-agent problem
Michael Jensen and William Meckling, 1976
Delegate to something that acts for you and it knows more about what it did than you do.
Why it matters here
Economists named this fifty years ago. The word they chose was agent, long before anyone meant software by it. The structure never changes. Delegation buys capacity and costs visibility, because the thing acting for you holds information you do not. Every remedy ever devised is monitoring, reporting, or incentive alignment. Put that in front of a board and the framing shifts. This is the oldest problem in management, running at machine speed, in numbers no manager has ever faced.
Jensen and Meckling, Theory of the Firm, Journal of Financial Economics, 1976.
The six runways
Agents are taking off from six places. One of them goes through you.
- Engineers on frameworks, in repositories that may not be in your inventory.
- Business teams on low-code platforms, frequently on a corporate card.
- Software you already pay for, shipping agent features in a release note nobody read.
- Coding assistants running agents inside the development process itself.
- Vendors and partners operating agents against your data, under contracts signed before any of this existed.
- The one project that went through architecture review. It is the only one currently on your list.
Runway 1 of 6
Engineers on frameworks.
The best-engineered agents in most enterprises and the least centrally visible, because they live in repositories rather than a console. The team knows exactly what they built. Nobody else does.
Evidence
These are rarely the agents that cause the incident. They are frequently the agents nobody can find when an auditor asks for the inventory.
What closes it
- Discover across repositories and cloud accounts, not by survey
- Take the owner from the commit history rather than a form
- Treat the service account as the identity to trace
- Require registration at deploy, not at design
Lyzr Research.
Runway 2 of 6
Business teams on low-code platforms.
Assembled by people in renewals, HR, operations or marketing on a platform the company already pays for. Often no engineering involvement at all, and often no awareness that software has been created.
Evidence
This is a fast-growing runway, and it tends to have the weakest ownership. The person who built it may change role within a year.
What closes it
- Treat the platform itself as an origin and discover inside it
- Require a named owner at creation, enforced by the platform
- Expire anything dormant automatically
- Stop calling it citizen development in security documents
Lyzr Research.
Runway 3 of 6
Agent features in software you already bought.
Arriving in a vendor release, sometimes enabled by default, operating on your data under a contract signed before agents existed as a category. Invisible to any inventory built around things you built.
Evidence
This is the runway most likely to surprise a CISO, because the procurement decision was made before the capability existed.
What closes it
- Add an agent question to vendor review and re-ask it at every major release
- Audit which purchased platforms have agent features switched on
- Require contractual notice of new agent capability
- Record vendor-operated agents in the same registry as your own
Lyzr Research.
Runway 4 of 6
Agents inside the development process.
Reading repositories, opening pull requests, touching build systems. Treated as developer tooling rather than production software, so the usual controls never attach.
Evidence
Broad repository access is the design. Activity is rarely retained in a form anyone can audit later.
What closes it
- Route them through the same gateway as everything else
- Retain traces even where a human reviews the output
- Scope repository access deliberately rather than by default
- Include them in the count, because an auditor will
Lyzr Research.
Runway 5 of 6
Agents your vendors run on your data.
Outside your perimeter entirely. Their trace, not yours, if a trace exists at all. Your regulator will still consider it your responsibility.
Evidence
Most third-party risk frameworks were written before an agent could act autonomously inside a vendor’s product against your records.
What closes it
- Contractual right to the trace, in the schedule
- Named agents listed, not a general clause about AI
- A tested way to require they stop
- Annual attestation that the list is current
Lyzr Research.
Runway 6 of 6
The project that went through review.
Nothing is wrong with this one. It has an owner, a purpose, a review record and a roadmap slot. The danger is treating the list it produces as the inventory.
Evidence
In many organizations this runway accounts for a minority of what is running, and it is the only part anyone can describe.
What closes it
- Keep doing this
- Stop presenting its output as the count
- Use it as the template for what registration should look like
- Measure the gap between it and discovery, monthly
Lyzr Research.
We have seen this film
Shadow IT produced SaaS discovery. Unmanaged cloud produced posture management. Both arrived late, and both arrived anyway.
The pattern is identical each time and the sequence does not vary. Capability becomes available without central approval. Adoption outruns inventory. An incident makes the gap visible. A discovery category forms, matures, and becomes a line item nobody questions. The only variable is how long an organization spends in the window between step two and step three, and what that window costs them.
Three waves. Same shape. The only difference is how long the gap lasted.
| Shadow IT | Unmanaged cloud | Agents | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What made it cheap | A credit card and a browser | A console and an API key | A platform login |
| Who built it | Any department | Any engineer | Anyone at all |
| What it touched | Data in somebody else’s SaaS | Compute and storage | Systems of record, and the outside world |
| When inventory arrived | Roughly four years late | Roughly three years late | Open question |
| What the category became | SaaS discovery | Cloud posture management | Still forming |
| What the delay cost | License waste and data spread | Breach exposure and bill shock | Unknown, and the exposure is larger |
What everyone got wrong.
The consensus says security. We think that framing produces the wrong program.
The argument of this report
Call it a security problem and you get a tool and a review board. Neither produces a list, an owner, or a number.
The security risk is real, and serious people are working on it competently. Our argument concerns where the problem sits. Security functions are built to find and stop bad things. The three things that broke here are absences. A register is missing. An accountable name is missing. A unit cost is missing. Those are management artifacts, and no detection product has ever produced one. Buying a better detection product will not start.
Same facts. Two readings. Completely different programs.
| Read as a security problem | Read as a management problem | |
|---|---|---|
| Who owns it | The CISO | Whoever owns the P&L the agents sit in |
| First action | Threat assessment and policy | Discovery, then an owner per agent |
| What gets bought | Detection and guardrails | A registry, a gateway, a trace |
| Success measure | Incidents prevented | Agents counted, owned, costed, retired |
| Cadence | Quarterly board review | Continuous, in the path of the work |
| What it misses | The list, the owner, the number | Very little, if the controls are real |
Instrument 02 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Conway’s law
Melvin Conway, 1967
Any organization produces systems that copy the shape of its own communication structure.
Why it matters here
This is why sprawl is not a discipline problem, and why telling people to be more careful changes nothing. Six parts of the business that can each procure, build and deploy independently will produce six estates, because that is the shape of the organization and software always takes the shape of the organization. The counter-structure has to cut across the teams, and that is why it cannot be delegated to whichever team is currently most organized. It gets owned centrally or it does not exist.
Melvin Conway, How Do Committees Invent?, Datamation, 1967.
Six places they are built. Four controls. Watch how many lines go round the outside.
ORANGE MARKS AGENTS BUILT OUTSIDE ANY PROGRAM THAT REACH PRODUCTION WITHOUT PASSING A CONTROL
A composite of patterns across enterprise deployments. Illustrative of shape, not a measurement.
Instrument 03 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
The law of requisite variety
W. Ross Ashby, An Introduction to Cybernetics, 1956
Only variety can absorb variety. A controller needs at least as many responses as the system it controls has states.
Why it matters here
The most useful sentence in cybernetics, and almost nobody in enterprise technology has heard it. A governing system must be at least as varied as the thing it governs or it fails in precisely the cases it did not anticipate. A quarterly review board cannot govern sixteen hundred agents changing weekly. The arithmetic forbids it, whatever the quality of the people. This is the formal reason the answer is software in the path of the work rather than a meeting, and it is worth putting in front of anyone proposing a committee.
W. Ross Ashby, An Introduction to Cybernetics, 1956.
Forrester, February 2026
Seventy-nine percent of vendors now treat this as a distinct product category. Forty percent report active buying motions.
Of 47 technology vendors polled who recognize agent control planes as a distinct category; 92% have assigned a product team; 40% report active customer buying motions
That is what a category looks like in the months before it becomes obvious. Microsoft shipped Agent 365 in May. Palo Alto bought Portkey. Fiddler repositioned in January. Salesforce is calling MuleSoft Agent Fabric a vendor-agnostic control plane. Everybody is claiming the same layer at the same time, which is usually the signal that the layer is real and that nobody owns it yet.
Everybody is claiming the same layer at once
Forrester poll of 47 technology vendors, February 2026, as reported.
What the market is actually selling, in five layers.
Lyzr analysis of published vendor documentation. The maturity and coverage descriptions are our judgment.
The first thing people buy
A gateway routes. It does not govern. Those are different verbs, and mixing them up is expensive.
An AI gateway is genuinely useful and it is the right first purchase for most platform teams. It centralizes model access, kills key sprawl, attributes cost and enforces rate limits. What it cannot do is tell you what the agent did after the model answered. It sees a request and a response. It does not see the tool call, the write to the system of record, or the human who approved it. If your question is cost, buy a gateway. If your question is what happened, a gateway will not answer it.
The second thing people buy
Observability tells the team that built the agent how it is behaving. It does not tell you what exists.
Tracing and evaluation products are excellent and the teams building agents should have them. But they instrument what somebody chose to instrument, which means they are blind by construction to the agents nobody registered. They are built for a developer debugging behavior, not for an executive answering an examiner. Both jobs are legitimate. One product does not do both, and assuming otherwise is the most common expensive mistake in this category right now.
The third thing people assume
Every platform ships a console for its own agents. A tower that sees one airline is not a tower.
Microsoft governs the Microsoft estate well, and increasingly reaches beyond it. AWS and Google do the same within their own boundaries. These are serious products and if ninety percent of your agents live in one ecosystem you should use the native console and stop reading. The problem is that almost nobody is at ninety percent, and the first incident will involve an agent the console could not see, because that is the definition of the gap.
The thing underneath all of it
Buy identity from one vendor, a gateway from another, cloud governance from a third and runtime monitoring from a fourth, and each becomes another island.
This is the structural trap and it is where most organizations will end up by accident. Every one of those four purchases is defensible on its own merits. Together they produce four partial pictures, four consoles, four definitions of what an agent is, and no answer to the only question that matters, which is what is running. The missing piece sits between the islands, and almost nobody is buying it because almost nobody has noticed it is a separate purchase.
Instrument 04 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Bundling and unbundling
Jim Barksdale, Netscape, 1995
There are only two ways to make money in business. Bundling and unbundling.
Why it matters here
Barksdale said it as an aside at a dinner and it has outlived almost every strategy framework written since. Every category does this. It fragments while the problem is new and interesting, because each piece is a company, then it re-bundles the moment buyers stop wanting to assemble it themselves. Security did it. Observability did it. Agent governance is unbundled right now across registries, gateways, evaluation tools and posture scanners. The question for a buyer is whether you want to be the systems integrator for your own governance for the next three years, whichever of those tools is best.
Attributed to Jim Barksdale, Netscape, 1995.
Layer 1 of 5
Layer one. Tool access.
Which tools an agent may call, and with whose permission. The newest layer and the least settled, because the protocols underneath it are barely two years old.
Evidence
This is where an agent stops being software that answers and becomes software that acts, which is the line every governance framework was written on the wrong side of.
What closes it
- Scope tool access per agent, not per platform
- Inherit the permission of the person, not the service account
- Record every tool call against the case
- Treat a new tool as a change requiring approval
Lyzr Research.
Layer 2 of 5
Layer two. Model traffic.
One path for model calls, with budgets, routing and limits. The most mature layer and the easiest to buy, which is why most organizations start and stop here.
Evidence
A gateway answers what it costs extremely well. It is silent on what the agent did after the model answered, which is four of the five questions.
What closes it
- Route everything through one path, including coding tools
- Attribute spend to an agent and an owner at the gateway
- Hard limits rather than alerts
- Make the paved road easier than the alternative or teams will route around it
Lyzr Research.
Layer 3 of 5
Layer three. Human approval.
A person on consequential actions, with the approval recorded. Thinnest coverage in the market, and the layer most often faked.
Evidence
An approve button pressed two seconds after an item appears, nine hundred times a day, produces a log entry that looks like oversight.
What closes it
- Define consequential narrowly, so the rate is sustainable
- Record the override, not just the approval
- Measure the rate a reviewer can actually sustain
- If nobody has ever rejected one, the control is not working
Lyzr Research.
Layer 4 of 5
Layer four. Runtime observability.
Tracing and scoring agent behavior. Strong products, built for the people who build agents rather than the people accountable for them.
Evidence
It instruments what somebody chose to instrument, which makes it blind by construction to the agents nobody registered.
What closes it
- Use it, and stop calling it governance
- Pair it with discovery or it only sees the known estate
- Make traces readable by somebody who did not build the system
- Keep evaluation separate from inventory in your own architecture
Lyzr Research.
Layer 5 of 5
Layer five. Audit evidence.
Reconstructing one decision months later, for somebody who did not build the system. The rarest capability of the five and the one every incident ends at.
Evidence
Application logs prove something ran. They do not carry the retrieved context, the tool calls or the human action, which is what the question is actually about.
What closes it
- Retain by case rather than by log file
- Long enough to survive an examination cycle
- Test it by having an outsider reconstruct one
- Include the human action in the record
Lyzr Research.
The comparison, on one slide
Five places governance can live. They answer different questions.
| Native cloud controls | Platform consoles | An AI gateway | Observability | A control plane | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What is flying | Its own cloud only | Its own platform only | Only what calls a model | Only what you instrumented | Everything, discovered |
| Who cleared it | Partial | Partial | No | No | Yes, with an owner |
| What it touched | Cloud resources | That platform | Model calls | Yes, in detail | Yes, by case |
| What it costs | Per cloud | Rarely | Yes, well | No | Yes, attributed |
| How to ground it | Per cloud | Per platform | At the gateway | No | One control, tested |
| Built for | Cloud architects | That platform’s users | Platform engineers | The team building agents | Whoever is accountable |
Mature programs run a gateway and observability underneath a control plane
Instrument 05 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Normalization of deviance
Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision, 1996
Each small exception, once it causes no harm, quietly becomes the new standard. Nobody ever decides to lower the bar.
Why it matters here
Vaughan studied Challenger and found no villains and no single bad decision. She found an organization that had accepted O-ring erosion so often without consequence that erosion became expected. In an agent program it looks like this. One agent ships without an owner because the deadline is tight. One goes live on a vendor benchmark because the evaluation set is not ready. One exception is granted because the business case is strong. None causes harm. Two years later the gap between written policy and actual practice is the size of the finding. The defense is boring, and it works. Write every exception down, with an owner and an expiry, and read the list out loud once a quarter.
Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision, University of Chicago Press, 1996.
Your arithmetic, not our claim
How many are in your sky?
Four inputs, all yours. We make no claim about your organization. Change the assumptions and the picture changes with them.
An estimate built from the ratios you select, shown in full. Not a measurement, and no substitute for a discovery exercise.
The two 2029s.
The good case, the bad one, and the small number of things that separate them.
Where this goes
The same organization, three years out, depending on one decision taken this year.
Gartner expects 40% of enterprises to demote or decommission agents by 2027, over gaps found after an incident
The good 2029
- Agent count is a reported metric, like headcount
- Every agent has an owner on a profit line
- Cost per unit of work is a number finance recognizes
- Audit is a sampling exercise rather than a crisis
The bad 2029
- A quarter of agents cannot be attributed to anyone
- Spend grows faster than output and nobody can say why
- An incident involves an agent nobody knew existed
- Governance arrives as a freeze, and good projects die with the bad
Gartner, May 2026, as reported. The two scenarios are our own construction.
Scenario one
The bad version starts with a question nobody can answer, long before any breach.
Somebody asks what an agent did. Not an attacker, not a regulator. Usually a customer or a finance controller. The answer takes four days and is incomplete. That becomes a finding. The finding becomes a policy. The policy becomes a freeze, because a freeze is the only instrument available to somebody who cannot see what they are stopping. The freeze lands on the good projects as hard as the bad ones, and the organization spends the next year rebuilding permission it already had.
Scenario two
The good version is unglamorous. Somebody produces a list, and keeps producing it.
It starts with a discovery run that surprises everybody. Owners get attached over a few weeks, which is tedious and generates arguments that turn out to be the useful part. Traffic moves through one path. Somebody tests the stop control and writes down how long it took. None of this needs a transformation program, and none of it needs a new budget cycle. The entire difference between the two scenarios is a quarter of unglamorous work done before anybody asked for it.
The whole difference
What separates the two is five questions, and none of them is technically hard.
What is flying. Who cleared it. What has it touched. What is it costing. How do I ground it. We expect most organizations could answer all five within a quarter of deciding to. The ones that stall will spend that quarter arguing about whose budget it comes from. The gap between the two futures is who picks it up.
The questions already forming
None of this requires new law. The existing questions transfer.
- Operational resilience rules already expect firms to show they can contain critical processes. An agent is a process.
- Model risk guidance already requires an inventory and a validation record. Agents are harder to inventory, and not exempt.
- Data protection already requires you to say what touched a customer record. An agent that cannot be traced makes that unanswerable.
- Third-party risk already covers vendors acting on your data. A vendor’s agent is a vendor acting on your data.
- Nothing here needs new law. A regulator only has to ask, and the first ask goes to the firm that had the incident.
Instrument 06 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Aggregation theory
Ben Thompson, Stratechery, 2015
Value accrues to whoever owns the point of access, not to whoever owns the supply.
Why it matters here
Thompson’s framework explains much of the last fifteen years of technology, and it is why the layer you own matters more than the tools you buy. Agents are becoming abundant. Cheap to build, available from every platform, increasingly interchangeable. When supply becomes abundant the scarce thing is the control point, meaning the place everything has to pass. For a vendor that is a market position. For you it is more consequential. Whoever holds that point holds the only complete picture of what your business is actually doing, and you should be extremely deliberate about whether that is you or somebody selling to you.
Ben Thompson, Aggregation Theory, Stratechery, 2015.
Instrument 07 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Everything evolves to commodity
Simon Wardley, mapping, from 2005 onward
Every component travels the same path. Invented, then custom-built, then a product, then a utility nobody discusses.
Why it matters here
Wardley’s contribution was noticing that components do not sit still, and that the correct strategy depends entirely on where a component currently sits. Build what is genuinely novel to you. Buy what has become a product. Rent what has become a utility and stop discussing it. Agent governance moved from invented to custom-built in roughly two years and is becoming a product now. That is a specific and useful thing to know, because a team starting to build one today is building something they will be able to buy before they finish. The cost of that mistake is a lost year.
Simon Wardley, Wardley mapping, published openly under Creative Commons.
The number nobody models
A freeze permanently ends the projects that were working.
When governance arrives as a moratorium, the things that stop are the things that were visible, which means the well-run projects with named owners and measured results. The unregistered agents nobody knew about keep running, because a moratorium cannot stop what it cannot see. That is the specific irony of arriving late. The freeze selects against exactly the behavior you were trying to encourage, and the teams who did it properly learn not to bother next time.
The quiet forcing function
Regulators move slowly. Insurers move at renewal.
- Cyber policies already ask about asset inventory. Extending that question to agents requires no new product, only a new line on an existing form.
- A question you cannot answer on a renewal form is a premium increase, an exclusion, or both.
- Unlike a regulator, an insurer does not need to consult, publish, or give you a transition period.
- This is one likely route by which agent inventory becomes mandatory, and almost nobody is planning for it.
Instrument 08 of 08 · A model worth borrowing
Goodhart’s law
Charles Goodhart, 1975, in the form sharpened by Marilyn Strathern, 1997
When a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure.
Why it matters here
This is the risk in everything we have just proposed and it would be dishonest to leave it out. The moment agent count becomes a board metric, somebody optimizes it. Registries get padded with retired agents to show coverage. Owners get assigned in bulk to a team inbox. Stop-control tests get run on an agent chosen because it was easy to stop. The counter is sampling. Pick three agents at random each quarter and have somebody independent reconstruct one real decision end to end. A metric tells you what the organization believes. A sample tells you what is true.
Charles Goodhart, 1975; Marilyn Strathern, Improving Ratings, 1997.
The strongest case against this report
The honest counter-argument is that this solves itself, and we would rather you heard it from us.
It goes like this. Agent building consolidates onto two or three platforms. Those platforms ship governance that is genuinely good, because governance becomes a competitive feature. Identity providers extend to agents the way they extended to service accounts. Within three years, native coverage is sufficient for most enterprises and a separate control plane looks like a product that existed briefly between two eras. We think that is maybe a one-in-four outcome. If you believe it is more likely than that, the right move is to buy nothing, route everything through one gateway for cost, and wait. That is a defensible position and we would not argue hard against it.
Prediction 01 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
Agent discovery becomes a standard control, the way asset discovery did after cloud.
Why we believe it
Each earlier wave of decentralized building ended with an inventory category. Shadow IT produced SaaS discovery. Unmanaged cloud produced posture management.
What would prove us wrong
If agent building consolidates onto one or two platforms fast enough that a native console is genuinely sufficient.
Signals to watch
- Agent registries appear in security architecture diagrams
- Discovery tools ship for agents as they did for cloud assets
- Unregistered agents start being recorded as findings
Prediction 02 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
How many agents you run becomes a number executives are expected to know.
Why we believe it
It is the first question any examiner, auditor or insurer asks, and the only one where not knowing is itself the finding.
What would prove us wrong
If agents stay embedded inside applications and nobody ever counts them separately.
Signals to watch
- Boards ask for an agent count the way they ask for headcount
- Agent inventory appears in annual reporting
- Insurers begin asking the question
Prediction 03 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
The ability to stop an agent, tested, becomes a procurement requirement.
Why we believe it
Resilience rules already expect firms to contain critical processes, and an agent is one. The 35% who say they could not stop one will have to answer for it.
What would prove us wrong
If regulators treat agents as ordinary software and never ask the question separately.
Signals to watch
- Stop-control testing appears in resilience exercises
- Regulators name the capability explicitly
- Procurement asks how an agent is halted
Prediction 04 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
Agent spend gets attributed to business units, and the attribution changes behavior within a month.
Why we believe it
Unattributed cost gets over-consumed. The month a team sees its own agent bill is the month somebody deletes the ones nobody uses.
What would prove us wrong
If model costs fall far enough that nobody bothers to attribute them.
Signals to watch
- Cost per agent appears in finance reporting
- Chargeback by agent becomes a platform feature
- Teams start retiring agents to save money
Prediction 05 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
Governance that only covers one vendor’s agents stops being considered governance.
Why we believe it
A tower that sees one airline is not a tower. The first incident always involves an agent the console could not see.
What would prove us wrong
If one platform wins decisively enough that single-vendor coverage is effectively complete coverage.
Signals to watch
- Control planes advertise multi-platform coverage as the headline
- Buyers reject single-vendor governance
- Standards work begins on agent metadata
Prediction 06 of 06 · Lyzr’s view
The hard problem moves from governing agents to governing what agents ask of each other.
Why we believe it
Once agents call agents routinely, you need a map of the traffic between them, and no console built for a list will show it.
What would prove us wrong
If agent-to-agent delegation stays rare in enterprise settings, which is possible and we doubt it.
Signals to watch
- Agent-to-agent calls appear in traces
- Protocols add identity to agent requests
- Incidents involve chains rather than single agents
What we would do.
If this were our problem, with our money, starting Monday.
Score yourself on five questions before buying anything.
Question 1 of 5
What is flying?
Discovery by questionnaire finds the agents people remember to declare. It misses purchased software, last quarter’s project, and anything running in a development tool nobody calls production.
Evidence
Eighteen percent of organizations hold a complete inventory. The agents that cause incidents are rarely the ones that went through review.
What closes it
- Discover automatically across clouds, platforms and repositories
- Treat an unregistered agent as an incident
- Include vendor-operated agents touching your data
- Re-run discovery on a schedule, not on request
IBM Think 2026.
Question 2 of 5
Who cleared it?
An agent with no named owner is nobody’s responsibility at exactly the moment it matters. The builder moved on and both sides assume the other owns it.
Evidence
Clearance in aviation is a record, not a conversation. Somebody issued it, at a time, and it is written down.
What closes it
- A named human owner on every agent, enforced at registration
- Purpose in one sentence a non-engineer can read
- An expiry date, so dormant agents surface on their own
- Ownership transfer as a blocking step when people leave
Lyzr Research.
Question 3 of 5
What has it touched?
Application logs prove something ran. They rarely let you reconstruct one decision months later: input, model, retrieved context, tool calls, the write, and the person who approved it.
Evidence
This is the question that ends the meeting, and it always arrives afterward, and always about one specific case.
What closes it
- Trace by case, not by log file
- Retain long enough to survive an examination cycle
- Make it searchable by somebody who did not build the system
- Include the human action, not only the machine’s
Lyzr Research.
Question 4 of 5
What is it costing?
Spend arrives as one invoice with no breakdown by agent, team or purpose. Nobody can defend it and nobody can optimize it, so the first budget squeeze kills the good projects alongside the bad.
Evidence
Gartner lists escalating cost as one of three reasons it expects a large share of agentic projects to be canceled.
What closes it
- Attribute every call to an agent and an owner
- Budgets and hard limits at the gateway, not in a spreadsheet
- Alert before the overrun, with the owner named
- Route repetitive work to a cheaper model deliberately
Gartner press release, June 25, 2025.
Question 5 of 5
How do I ground it?
Most stop procedures involve finding the team, the repository and somebody with access, on a Tuesday afternoon. Nobody has rehearsed it, and the one that needs stopping is the one nobody knew about.
Evidence
Thirty-five percent say they could not stop a rogue agent today. This is the most answerable item on the list and the least answered.
What closes it
- One control that halts any agent, from one place
- Works out of hours, by somebody who is not the author
- Tested on a schedule, like a fire alarm
- Halting is logged, with a reason and a reinstatement path
Writer enterprise survey, 2026.
How visible is your sky?
Five questions about how things actually are, not how the policy describes them.
If it were our money
Eight weeks, and none of it needs a new budget cycle.
01 · Weeks 1 to 2
Discover
Automatic discovery across clouds, platforms, repositories and purchased software. Expect the number to surprise you.
02 · Weeks 2 to 3
Attach owners
A named human on every agent, with a one-sentence purpose and an expiry date. Most teams skip this step, and it is the one that matters.
03 · Weeks 3 to 5
Route the traffic
Model calls through one gateway, so tracing, budgets and limits apply without each team implementing them.
04 · Weeks 5 to 6
Test the stop
Halt a real agent, out of hours, by somebody who did not build it. Write down how long it took. That number is your headline.
05 · Weeks 6 to 8
Sample and report
Three agents at random each quarter, one decision each reconstructed by somebody independent.
Say no to these
Four things that look like progress and are not.
- A policy document with no discovery behind it. It governs the agents people remembered to declare, which is the set that was never the problem.
- A review board meeting quarterly. Ashby’s law forbids it from working at this scale, and everyone in the room will eventually know that.
- A single-vendor console presented as the inventory. It is an inventory of one runway out of six.
- A stop control nobody has tested. Untested, it is a line in a runbook, and the difference shows at the worst possible moment.
Function playbook 01 of 05
If you are the CISO
Where agents fit
- Agent discovery across clouds and platforms
- Identity and permission inheritance
- Data egress and residency
- Incident response that includes agents
Start here
Automatic discovery. Everything else depends on knowing what exists and nothing else can be scheduled until it does.
Then scale
Agents inside the existing security operating model, with the same reviews, evidence and escalation as any other asset.
How one unit of work moves
What to measure
Agents discovered versus declared, time to attribute an agent to an owner, time to halt.
Function playbook 02 of 05
If you run the platform
Where agents fit
- One gateway for every model call
- Shared tracing and evaluation tooling
- Golden paths for building agents
- Deprecation and retirement
Start here
Route every model call through one gateway. Small change per team, and it creates the picture everything else needs.
Then scale
A paved road teams prefer, with tracing, budgets and secrets handled for them rather than enforced on them.
How one unit of work moves
What to measure
Share of traffic through the gateway, time to ship a compliant agent, number of unmanaged estates.
Function playbook 03 of 05
If you own risk
Where agents fit
- Classification against incoming regulation
- Evidence for examinations
- Human oversight that is real
- Post-deployment monitoring
Start here
Pick three agents at random and try to reconstruct one decision each. That exercise tells you more than any survey.
Then scale
Agent oversight folded into the existing control framework, with sampling as the assurance mechanism rather than attestation.
How one unit of work moves
What to measure
Decisions reconstructable within the retention period, override rate, findings per examination.
Function playbook 04 of 05
If you own the number
Where agents fit
- Attribution of model spend by agent and team
- Forecasting as volume grows
- Build versus buy
- Retirement of unused agents
Start here
Attribute last month’s model invoice to agents and owners. The conversation changes the moment people see their own line.
Then scale
Budgets and limits at the gateway, with the forecast built from agent-level volume rather than one vendor total.
How one unit of work moves
What to measure
Cost per agent, cost per unit of work, share of spend attributed, dormant agents retired.
Function playbook 05 of 05
If you own the P&L
Where agents fit
- Agents running inside your process
- What happens when one stops
- Who you call
- What you are accountable for
Start here
Write down which agents your process depends on and what you would do tomorrow if each were switched off.
Then scale
Operating procedures updated so an agent outage is a known scenario rather than an improvisation.
How one unit of work moves
What to measure
Process steps dependent on an agent, tested fallbacks, time to recover without it.
The one page
Five lines. That is the whole board update.
- How many agents we run, and how that compares to last quarter.
- How many have a named owner, as a percentage, and which business units are behind.
- What they cost in total and per unit of work, trending.
- How long it took to stop one, from the last test, and who performed it.
- One decision, reconstructed, with the trace attached. The same exercise every quarter, a different agent each time.
What should be true at thirty days, sixty, and ninety.
Day 30
A number
You can say how many agents are running and roughly where they came from. The number will be wrong, and it will be closer than anything you had.
Day 60
A name and a path
Every agent on the list has a named human against it, and most model traffic runs through one route, so cost attribution and tracing come for free.
Day 90
A test and a sample
Somebody who did not build an agent has stopped one, out of hours, and the time is written down. One decision has been reconstructed end to end by somebody independent.
Week one, specifically
How to run the week that produces the first number.
- Do not send a survey. A survey returns the agents people remember, which is the set that was never the problem.
- Start with the model provider invoices. Every agent that calls a model leaves a billing trace, and the account names on that invoice point at teams.
- Then the platforms. List every tool you license that has shipped an agent feature, and check in each one whether it is switched on.
- Then the repositories. Search for the client libraries rather than for the word agent, because nobody names things helpfully.
- Then ask the five questions of six people from six different functions, separately, and compare. The disagreements are the finding.
- Write the number down with the date. You will want the starting point later, and nobody ever records it.
Before you sign anything
Six questions. Any vendor in this category should answer all six without a follow-up call.
- Which of the six runways do you discover, and which do you not? If the answer is not a list of six, it is incomplete.
- Can you govern an agent you did not create, on a platform you do not own? This separates a console from a control plane.
- Where does the trace data live, and can it live in my perimeter? Ask this before anything else if you are regulated.
- Show me the stop control being used, not described. Then ask how long it took and who performed it.
- What happens when the next platform ships agents? If the answer involves a roadmap item, you are buying a snapshot.
- What do you not do? A vendor who cannot answer this has either not thought about it or is hoping you will not.
How this goes wrong
Five ways this program fails, all of them avoidable.
- It gets assigned to security alone, so it produces policy and detection and never produces a list.
- It gets assigned to the platform team, who build something excellent for their own estate and have no mandate over the other five runways.
- Discovery runs once, produces a shocking number, and is never repeated, so the number is stale within a quarter.
- Owners get assigned to a team rather than a person, which is the same as no owner at the moment it matters.
- The stop control is specified, documented, approved, and never tested, which means it does not exist.
Three owners, and the thing that fails if any one of them opts out.
Security
Finds it
Discovery, identity, egress and incident response. Owns the answer to what is flying. Cannot own the P&L consequences and should not be asked to.
Platform
Routes it
One gateway, one trace, golden paths and retirement. Owns the answer to what it touched and what it cost. Cannot mandate adoption across business units alone.
The business
Owns it
A named person on each agent, on a profit line, accountable for whether it is worth running. Without this the other two produce an excellent inventory of things nobody is responsible for.
Our position
The cost of being early is a quarter of work. The cost of being late is a freeze.
The late version has a predictable ending. Something happens, the organization cannot explain it, and the response is a moratorium rather than a control, because a moratorium is the only instrument available to somebody who cannot see what they are stopping. That freeze usually costs more than the governance would have, and it lands on the good projects as hard as the bad ones. The argument for acting now is simple. The work is small while the estate is still legible, and it stops being small very quickly.
Three ways in, depending on who holds the picture.
Your platform team
Self-hosted
Opencontroller in your own cloud account or on your own hardware. Your team operates it, your data never leaves, and the source is open to inspection.
Your partner
Partner-led
More than 50 implementation partners scope and run the discovery and rollout on their own delivery model, with certified engineers.
Lyzr’s team
Forward-deployed
Lyzr engineers run discovery, stand up the gateway and hand you a working picture inside your perimeter. Accountable for the outcome.
Lyzr’s Opencontroller.
We argue that the control plane is the missing layer. This is Lyzr’s version of it, held up against the five questions.
Lyzr Opencontroller
Opencontroller finds, owns, ships, runs and improves every agent, wherever it was built.
Agents stay on the runtimes where they run today. Opencontroller registers them, observes them, and enforces policy wherever their traffic passes through its gateways. Lyzr describes ten blocks and more than 70 modules on one policy model, with production evidence feeding the next release. It works across any cloud, framework, model and runtime, with adapters for Amazon Bedrock AgentCore, Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform and Microsoft Foundry.
The five questions, and the Opencontroller block that answers each.
| Your question | What Lyzr says it does | The block |
|---|---|---|
| What is flying? | Read-only scans across clouds, clusters and developer laptops build one live inventory, with a record for every agent. | Discover and Register |
| Who cleared it? | Each agent has a named owner, its own identity, and release gates with approvals before it reaches production. | Identity, Evals and Deploy |
| What has it touched? | Every call is checked in the path, with per-tool limits, and each step is traced with its owner. | Gateways, Guardrails and Observability |
| What is it costing? | Virtual keys and team budgets on model calls, with cost and owner on every span of a trace. | LLM Gateway and Observability |
| How do I ground it? | An owner or a policy can hold or pause an agent, quarantine it, or roll it back in one step. | Agent Gateway and Deploy |
Lyzr Opencontroller
Control happens in the path, so a call can be held before it lands.
Most agent monitoring tells you what a call did after it did it, and a log cannot stop a model call that is already running. Opencontroller sits in the request path instead. Each call is checked for identity, spend scope and prompt injection before the model sees it, and the response is checked again before it reaches the user. The control plane and its gateways run in your own cloud account, on premises or air-gapped, and Lyzr says control-plane data, credentials and telemetry never need to reach it.
Lyzr
Agents inside the development process get covered too, from the laptop to the cluster.
The fourth runway was agents inside the development process. Lyzr’s Basecode controls the machines where agents are built, and brings coding agents such as Claude Code, Codex and Copilot under the same policy and spend controls. Agent Studio and Architect are where agents get built, quickly or visually. Opencontroller controls the environments where agents run. Lyzr says teams can build in Studio and govern the whole fleet in the control plane, including agents they wrote by hand.
When Opencontroller is the right call, and when it is not.
| Choose it when | Choose something else when | |
|---|---|---|
| Your estate | Agents sit on mixed clouds, frameworks and SaaS platforms. | Nearly all agents live in one ecosystem with a capable native console. |
| Your data | It has to stay in your own cloud, on premises or air-gapped. | Public cloud is fine and a managed service is simpler. |
| Coding agents | Developers run Claude Code, Codex or Copilot, and you want one policy and one spend view. | Nobody on your team uses coding agents yet. |
| Agents you did not build | You can route their traffic through the gateways. Lyzr says enforcement depends on the path. | You cannot route their traffic, so you get inventory and observation only. |
| Maturity | You are comfortable with a product announced in 2026. | You need a long track record before you buy. |
| Your appetite | You want one policy model across discovery, identity, gateways and evals. | A model gateway alone would do, which Lyzr says covers one block of ten. |
About Lyzr
The full-stack agent infrastructure platform for enterprises and governments that want to own their intelligence.
Founded in New York in 2023. Agent Studio, Architect, Opencontroller, Open Cowork, Openfinetuner, Optimus and Madison cover building, governing, running and owning agents. Deploys in your AWS, Azure or GCP account, a dedicated tenant, SaaS, on bare metal, fully air-gapped, or on the Optimus appliance.
Backed by Rocketship.vc, BGV, Accenture Ventures, GFT, the Partnership Fund for New York City and Plug and Play.
Sources and notes
Where the numbers come from.
- IBM, enterprise agent survey presented at Think 2026, as reported; over 1,600 agents per large enterprise by end of 2026; 18% hold a complete inventory; 12% have a centralized platform; 70% say governance is not fit for purpose.
- Deloitte, State of AI 2026; approximately one in five organizations has a mature governance model for autonomous agents.
- Writer enterprise survey, 2026, as reported; 35% say they could not shut down a rogue agent.
- Forrester, February 2026 poll of 47 technology vendors; 79% recognize agent control planes as a distinct product category; 92% have assigned a product team; 40% report active customer buying motions.
- Gartner, May 2026, as reported; by 2027, 40% of enterprises will demote or decommission autonomous agents because of governance gaps found after a production incident.
- Gartner, Gartner Predicts Over 40% of Agentic AI Projects Will Be Canceled by End of 2027 (press release, June 25, 2025).
- Microsoft Agent 365 general availability, May 2026; Palo Alto Networks acquisition of Portkey, May 2026; Fiddler repositioning, January 2026; Salesforce MuleSoft Agent Fabric, as publicly announced by each.
- Lyzr, Opencontroller overview (lyzr.ai/opencontroller), product site (opencontroller.lyzr.com) and Lyzr LinkedIn page, October 2026; described as Lyzr states it.
Survey figures are cited as published and use different definitions, and several are vendor-run. Spot an error and tell us, and we will fix it.
Sources and notes
Where the ideas come from.
- Michael Jensen and William Meckling, Theory of the Firm, Journal of Financial Economics (1976).Why delegating to an agent costs you visibility
- Melvin Conway, How Do Committees Invent?, Datamation (1967).Why sprawl follows the shape of the organization
- W. Ross Ashby, An Introduction to Cybernetics (1956).Why a review board cannot govern sixteen hundred agents
- Jim Barksdale on bundling and unbundling, Netscape, 1995, as widely quoted.Why governance tools fragment, then bundle
- Diane Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision, University of Chicago Press (1996).How small exceptions become the standard
- Ben Thompson, Aggregation Theory, Stratechery (2015).Why the control point holds the value
- Simon Wardley, Wardley mapping, published openly under Creative Commons (from 2005).Why to buy what is becoming a product
- Charles Goodhart (1975); Marilyn Strathern, Improving Ratings (1997).Why a board metric needs sampling behind it
The two 2029 scenarios and the six predictions are our own, offered as positions to be argued with.
Your next step
Bring one question. Leave with a number.
Thirty minutes, no slides. Ask how many agents you are running, and we will show you how we would find out.
01
Count it
We walk through the six runways with you and estimate where your agents are most likely to be hiding.
02
Name it
We work out who should own what, and where the arguments about ownership will start.
03
Plan it
You leave with a first-quarter plan, and an honest view on whether you need to buy anything at all.